|Grab that rookie....or not....|
When drafting for your fantasy football league, the thought always comes up....whether or not to draft that high-ranking rookie. You know the one. The one that has all the potential to be a breakout star.
I'll give you some food for thought if you're considering picking one of these "can't miss kids" up for your team. Hesitate.
Normally the highest draft picks, no matter how good they may have been in college, and no matter how good they may be in the pros, get drafted by the worst teams. That right there is enough for me to balk at selecting them. If it's a running back you covet, think about whether that team has the offensive lne to open holes for him. Think about the quarterback- is he good enough to spread the field and prevent teams from "stacking the box" against the run?
Another thing to think about is "hitting the wall". If given the chance to step right in and start, the production of rookie players drops dramatically as the long season wears on them. Again, not a good scenario, especially when you consider that the end of the year is where you'll need production the most.
If you're playing in a keeper league, then rookies are a good idea for your future, especially if you know that the team that drafted that player is adament about building a quality team around them. Otherwise, I'd personally let the next guy draft him.
Draft strategy scenarios
Everybody has their favorite draft day strategy when it comes to picking the next fantasy football league champ. I'll review a couple here, and go over a few pros and cons.
First up is the RB first strategy. This strategy hordes a quality RB with your first pick, and second if your draft allows. The idea here is that RB's suffer a much more dramatic loss of production as you go down the list. Not so for, say, Quarterbacks. Their production is tied more closely to each other, meaning a QB drafting in the first round of your draft, theoretically, will not do much greater than a QB drafted in the third round. Obviously, there are arguments to be made. Peyton Manning is a good example (season of '04) of this.
The best athlete strategy states that you draft the best player available, regardless of position. This can seem like a real good strategy, but watch out when you try to fill position holes later in the draft. You stand a good chance of a very unbalanced team.
The starting team strategy dwells in the wisdom that you pay close attention to your starting lineup- fielding and drafting the best players at every position. While this is definately a good way to go, watch out for your bench. Remember, you will need them during the season, so having the cupboard empty is not good. In other words, if you hav ethe chance to grab a very good WR, and your strategy says it's Tight End time, by all means grab the WR for your bench.
Some other notes: Tight End is another feast of famine position. There usually are four or five good tight ends, and not much else. Also keep in mind the type of offense a team runs. Some never hit the TE, and don't see them as much more than a blocking force.
Rob Moore operates HIWAY-play.com, a site featuring fantasy sports reviews, and where many great folks play online games free
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